Poisoned Fruits: Human Capital, Health, and Economic Effects of Agricultural Pesticides in the United States - Cavit Baran

Abstract: This paper is the first to explore the legacy of early pesticide revolution in the United States. To do so, I study historical arsenic and lead use in agriculture and their effects on education, health and local economies in rural America. Combining historical county crop and weather data with linked census and WWII army enlistment records, I find that in areas with potentially higher use of lead and arsenic, exposed cohorts were 2 percent less likely to complete grade 8 or higher and had lower intelligence test scores (2 percent) compared to older cohorts. Cross-cohort differences due to exposure are strikingly larger in magnitude and statistically significant only in the areas where leaching to groundwater is more likely to occur due to local soil and aquifer characteristics. I also construct a novel dataset by digitizing 1927 Pennsylvania farm census and find that exposed cohorts growing up on treated farms had less schooling confirming the main results. Relative to the pre-arsenical period, areas with higher exposure experienced a 17 to 30 percent increase in deaths from cancer, which persisted over time while the same areas saw a relative decline in overall mortality. Furthermore, I find higher exposure led to a persistent relative decline in farm revenue and land values (10 to 20 percent) in affected areas after 1940 as pesticides lost their efficacy due to excessive use. Finally, I provide a cost-benefit analysis showing that economic costs of additional cancer deaths and decline in farm revenues are nearly half of the estimated economic benefits associated with historical arsenic and lead use.